The epidemiology of belief

We are familiar with the idea of a self-proclaimed belief and its value to the listener. On its own it gives some information but not enough to be acted upon. A belief, to be useful, needs to be testable and tested. The most rigorous test is the observation of behaviours by the believer which, if the belief were to prove false, would involve serious inconvenience or harm. This is seen most clearly in simple economic matters where an individual chooses to invest money in hope of future gain recognising that this is based on a belief about future events which if proved wrong may result in substantial losses. It is also exhibited in playing games with moves chosen on the belief that they will improve the individual's chance of success and which if wrong will result in a disadvantage or loss. With religion the test is impossible because neither the observer nor the believer seriously expect any positive outcome.